distributed energy resources

WHAT WE DO

We model the economics and simulate adoption of distributed energy resources (e.g., solar PV, battery storage, electric vehicles, energy efficiency) – assessing the likely market impact of a variety of policy, rate structure, and cost scenarios. We also help clients understand the impact of DERs on electricity transmission & distribution requirements, facilitating planning and smart investments.

WHY WE DO IT

Electric utilities, regulatory agencies, and manufacturers alike need to have an understanding of where the DER market is headed, and how fast. The environment is changing rapidly (cost declines, tax credits, rate structure changes, etc.), and robust modeling methods are needed to keep pace.

HOW WE DO IT

We provide unparalleled accuracy in our granular forecasts of adoption using a variety of modeling techniques that are well-documented in academic literature, including:

System Dynamics (stocks, flows, feedback loops)

Bass diffusion

Consumer choice theory (random utility theory)

Linear and nonlinear optimization

Discounted cash flow analysis

Take a sneak peek behind the magic curtain.

DER FORECAST MODELING

We employ our SPIDER™ model to simulate DER adoption -- applying a variety of well-established methodologies documented in leading academic literature.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND BASS DIFFUSION

We apply Bass diffusion theory implemented in a System Dynamics framework, which affords us flexibility to incorporate relevant feedback and to deal with multiple time-changing inputs simultaneously.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

We simulate technology adoption and over time for a wide array of policy, cost, or rate structure scenarios.

SPATIAL FORECASTING

We forecast spatially, as desired, to facilitate resource planning and to inform operations.

MODEL CALIBRATION

We rigorously calibrate our model using historical data and, if desired, survey data (e.g., via Discrete Choice Analysis).

BATTERY DISPATCH OPTIMIZATION

We simulate the optimal dispatch and value to the customer of battery storage or combined PV/storage systems for any rate structure, customer load profile, or PV production profile (Source: Welch 2017). This approach also permits us to calculate the impact of DERs on electricity distribution constraints.

Welch, C. "Making the Case for Using Analytica for System Dynamics Modeling: A Reference Guide and Comparison with Classical Platforms." International System Dynamics Conference. Cambridge, MA. July 2017.
CONTACT US