System Dynamics (stocks, flows, feedback loops)
Consumer choice theory (random utility theory)
Linear and nonlinear optimization
Discounted cash flow analysis
We employ our SPIDER™ model to simulate DER adoption -- applying a variety of well-established methodologies documented in leading academic literature.
We apply Bass diffusion theory implemented in a System Dynamics framework, which affords us flexibility to incorporate relevant feedback and to deal with multiple time-changing inputs simultaneously.
We simulate technology adoption and over time for a wide array of policy, cost, or rate structure scenarios.
We forecast spatially, as desired, to facilitate resource planning and to inform operations.
We rigorously calibrate our model using historical data and, if desired, survey data (e.g., via Discrete Choice Analysis).
We simulate the optimal dispatch and value to the customer of battery storage or combined PV/storage systems for any rate structure, customer load profile, or PV production profile (Source: Welch 2017). This approach also permits us to calculate the impact of DERs on electricity distribution constraints.