PUBLICATIONS

latest White papers

The Residential Solar Retrofit Market in California is Beginning to Saturate

The New Construction Market Can Help Mitigate the Decline

After a decade of explosive growth in the residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market, in 2017 California saw its first decrease in annual residential solar installations. This paper suggests that the most probable cause of this downturn is the beginning of market saturation in the residential retrofit market (as differentiated from the new construction market). It also illustrates how the new construction market, which is growing rather than declining, can mitigate a downturn in the retrofit market when sufficient housing growth and aggressive new construction policies or initiatives exist. The analysis suggests that 15 - 20,000 jobs are at risk in California if steps are not taken to mitigate the downturn...

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PUBLICATIONS / PRESENTATIONS AUTHORED OR CO-AUTHORED BY LUMIDYNE STAFF

SDG&E, Navigant, Trove. "Demonstration of Methodology and Tools for Estimating Propensity for Customer Adoption of Photovoltaics." December 2017.
Welch, C. "Making the Case for Using Analytica for System Dynamics Modeling: A Reference Guide and Comparison with Classical Platforms." Peer reviewed paper presented at the International System Dynamics Conference. Cambridge, MA. July 2017.
Welch, C., Wikler, G., and Ollis, J. “Integrating Demand Response into the Northwest’s 7th Power Plan: Business Planning in an Uncertain World.” Presented at the National Town Meeting for Demand Response and Smart Grid. Washington, DC. May 28, 2015. 
Corfee, K., Welch, C., Bloch, C., Ong, S., “Net Metering Grandfathering Analysis for the Residential and Commercial/Industrial Market Sectors.” Report Dated December 23, 2013. Prepared for Pacific Gas and Electric. Presented as an attachment to PG&E testimony in Rulemaking 12.11.005.
Mosovsky, B., and Welch, C. “How Solar-Plus-Storage Can Re-Align Customer and Utility Values.” Presentation at the 2016 AESP Conference. Chicago, IL.
Welch, C. and Richerson-Smith, D. “Incentive Scenarios in Potential Studies: A Smarter Approach” Peer reviewed paper presented at American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings. August, 2012. Pacific Grove, CA.
Welch, C. and Rogers, B. “Estimating the Remaining Useful Life of Residential Appliances.” Peer reviewed paper presented at American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings. August, 2010. Pacific Grove, CA.
Welch, C. and Stern, F. “Simulating the Adoption of Energy Efficient Technologies.” Poster presented at American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings. August, 2010. Pacific Grove, CA.
McCann, R.J., Welch, C. “Assessing Los Angeles Basin Reliability Given Environmental Constraints.” Presented at 2009 IEPR Workshop before the California Energy Commission. 
Welch, C. and Stern, F.  “SolarSIM: A Dynamic Technology Diffusion Model Simulating Adoption of Distributed Solar PV, Solar Hot Water, and Daylighting.” Presented at Electric Utility and Environment (EUEC) Conference, February 3, 2009, Phoenix, AZ.
Schare, S. and Welch, C. “Estimating Demand Response Potential for Resource Planning.“ Paper presented at the AESP 19th National Energy Services Conference & Expo, January 2009, San Diego, California.
Schare, S., Welch, C. and Violette, D. “Con Edison Callable Load Study.” May 15, 2008.
Welch, C.  “System Dynamics: HyDIVE™ (Hydrogen Dynamic Infrastructure and Vehicle Evolution) Model” Presented at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Annual Hydrogen Program Merit Review, Washington, D.C., 2007.
Welch, C. "Lessons Learned from Alternative Transportation Fuels: Modeling Transition Dynamics." NREL/TP-540-39446. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory., February 2006.
Welch, C. "Discrete Choice Analysis: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Demand Potential." Presented at the DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 31, 2007.
Welch, C. “Estimating Regional and Utility Demand Response Potential - A Case Study at Con Edison.” Presented at the Peak Load Management Alliance Conference, Austin, TX, October 28, 2008.
Struben, J., Welch, C. and Sterman, J. "Modeling the Co-Evolutionary Dynamics of Hydrogen Vehicles and Refueling Stations." NHA Annual Hydrogen Conference, Long Beach, CA, 2006.
Welch, C. HyDIVE™ (Hydrogen Dynamic Infrastructure and Vehicle Evolution) model analysis. Presented at the US DOE Hydrogen Analysis Workshop. August 9-10, 2005.
Welch, C., Wipke, K., Gronich, S., and Garbak, J. “Hydrogen Fleet and Infrastructure Demonstration and Validation Project: Data Analysis Overview.” NREL CP-540-37845. Presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference. Washington, D.C. March 2005.
Wipke, K., Welch, C., Thomas, H., Sprik, S., Gronich, S., and Garbak, J. “Controlled Hydrogen Fleet and Infrastructure Demonstration and Validation Project—Initial Fuel Cell Efficiency and Durability Results.” World Electric Vehicle Association Journal, Vol. 1, 2007.,
December 2006. 
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