TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF FORECASTING DERS

SPIDER accurately forecasts DER adoption and demand impacts to facilitate distribution planning. Custom-tailored for your unique needs, SPIDER integrates all DERs into a single spatial and temporal forecast model that explicitly addresses uncertainty and risk.
SPIDER™ (Spatial Penetration and Integration of Distributed Energy Resources) permits rapid, accurate, granular DER adoption & impact forecasts to facilitate both distribution and system-level planning – with explicit integration of uncertainty & risk.

Accurate

  • Proven, vetted methodology developed by a team with 15 years of experience modeling DER adoption for electric utilities, commissions, NREL and the U.S. D.O.E
  • Flexible spatial resolution that balances computational needs with data availability and inherent uncertainty, avoiding the trap of "false precision"
  • Spatial, temporal forecasts at the feeder, substation, or ZIP Code level, as desired
  • Auto-calibrates in a couple of hours (for a mid-size utility) with updated data, ensuring that forecasts are never stale

customized

  • Model is custom-tailored to meet your evolving needs
  • Prevents being shackled to a one-size-fits-all “solution” 
  • Seamlessly integrates with legacy data, maximizing flexibility
  • Optional development of customized DER-tracking database (from application through approval)

Transparent & Visual

  • Unparalleled transparency through a visual, icon-based platform (a stark contrast with most "black box" models)
  • Visually compare historical adoption with simulated back-casts, adding confidence to the forecast and improving buy-in
  • Easily inspect every model input, output, and intermediate variable in both chart and table format
  • Quickly test multiple scenarios and run what-if analyses
  • Seamlessly integrates with Tableau for advanced data visualization and mapping

integrated risk analysis

  • Integrates any combination of solar PV, battery storage, electric vehicles, energy efficiency, and demand response into a single forecast
  • Model structure and calibration techniques inherently account for DER interactions and correlations
  • Addresses uncertainty and planning risk using Monte Carlo simulation

rigorous

  • DER economics and demand impacts respond to any electric rate structure (TOU, demand charges, etc.)
  • Mixed-integer programming permits simulating hourly or sub-hourly dispatch optimization (e.g., for storage systems)
  • Responds to historical (for calibration) and forecast changes to electric rates, system costs, incentives, tax credits, etc.

Multiple delivery options

Model usage is dictated by your unique needs. Options include:

  • Desktop Application - Maximum control for the end user
  • Software as a Service (SaaS) - Secure web interface hosted on scalable cloud computing
  • Forecasting as a Service (FaaS) - Regularly updated by Lumidyne staff
Schedule demo

“Cory Welch is a Grandmaster in the art and science of creating credible decision models that bring real insight. He is one of the very best in the business.”

Max Henrion, PhD - CEO, Lumina Decision Systems

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The explosive growth of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) caught many utilities (and most others) by surprise, and now electric vehicles and battery storage threaten to do the same... utilities are increasingly attempting to account for DERs in their planning processes, in many cases all the way down to the distribution system level...