CLIENT

CONFIDENTIAL: Large investor-owned utility in southwest U.S.

CHALLENGE

A large investor-owned utility in the southwest U.S. needed to understand the likely economics and adoption of solar PV and combined solar PV plus battery storage systems in their service territory. They needed to assess the impact of storage systems on a spatially granular level to facilitate distribution system planning. They did not have the tools needed to understand the complex interaction between battery storage and solar PV systems from an economic or adoption standpoint.

approach

Lumidyne is currently assisting this utility with forecasting the likely impact of battery storage systems on their electric distribution system. Lumidyne is applying its SPIDER(tm) model to forecast adoption of battery storage and combined solar PV and battery storage systems for this utility. Using publicly available interconnection data, we are calibrating the forecast to historical adoption at the ZIP Code level. To estimate the economics and impact of the battery storage system, we employ mixed-integer programming techniques to simulate the optimal battery dispatch for any given load profile, PV generation profile, TOU rate structure, and system configuration.

RESULTS

The calibrated model is being used to forecast adoption and impact on peak demand over a 10-year time horizon under a range of assumptions regarding future system costs. The client will be using the results of the forecast to inform their investment requirements for their electric distribution system.

simulating optimal battery dispatch

We employ linear programming (or mixed integer, as needed) to simulate optimal battery dispatch for any combination of load shape, battery characteristic, PV generation profile, and electric rate structure (e.g., TOU rates, peak demand charges).

BASS DIFFUSION & SYSTEM DYNAMICS

The analysis employed Bass diffusion theory in a System Dynamics modeling construct, permitting flexibility regarding time-varying inputs (e.g., cost, tax credits).

spatially granular forecasts

Detailed historical PV interconnect data facilitating calibration of diffusion parameters at the ZIP Code level. (For Illustration Only)