Cory Welch

Cory Welch is the Founder & President of Lumidyne Consulting and a former U.S. Naval Officer who earned his SM in Mechanical Engineering from MIT, an MBA from MIT's Sloan School of Management, and a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Cornell. He has more than 20 years of experience in the energy industry, the last 15 of which have focused on developing and applying computer models to solve complex problems related to clean energy. Formerly a Director in Navigant Consulting's Energy Practice and a researcher at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Cory has developed dozens of sophisticated modeling solutions in the renewable energy and energy efficiency space. Cory has domain expertise in distributed energy resources, energy efficiency, and advanced technology vehicles. His technical skills include expertise in System Dynamics, technology diffusion, linear and nonlinear optimization, Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, consumer choice theory, Discrete Choice Analysis, and discounted cash flow models. Most of his career has focused on distributed energy resources, such as solar PV, battery storage, energy efficiency, and demand response. He has delivered modeling analysis and tools to dozens of energy clients, including many of the largest investor-owned utilities, regulatory agencies, non-profit conservation agencies, planning authorities, and manufacturers in North America.     

• Formerly a Director leading DER modeling in Navigant’s Energy Practice, he developed Navigant’s Renewable Energy Market Simulator (RE-Sim™) model. He applied this model in strategic advisory engagements with ten major electric utilities looking to better understand the economics, dynamics and drivers of adoption of distributed solar PV and PV + storage systems. 
• Built and led team of over 20 modelers responsible for over supporting over $5M/year of consulting engagements in the clean energy industry. Team capabilities include system dynamics, linear and nonlinear optimization, technology diffusion, risk/uncertainty analysis, and financial analysis, among others. 
• Developed a highly transparent, web-capable model for Pacific Gas & Electric to estimate the impact on customers and utility economics of changes to Net Energy Metering policies in California. The model analyzed probability distributions of historic payback times for solar PV installations under various NEM grandfathering and rate scenarios.
• Developed Navigant Consulting’s Demand Side Management Simulator (DSMSim™) to simulate the adoption of energy-efficient technologies in efficiency potential studies and program design. DSMSim™ is a bottom-up technology diffusion model grounded in the principles of System Dynamics (stock/flow modeling). Led projects estimating energy-efficiency potential analyses for ten electric/gas utilities. Acted as senior modeling advisor on potential studies for fifteen utilities.
• Developed a stochastic, dynamic, behavioral, nonlinear optimization model for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council. This model calculates optimal electric generation and demand side management resource strategies with explicit consideration of uncertainty and risk. Council staff use this model to develop each Power Plan for utilities in the Pacific NW.
• Managed a $6M project to evaluate the energy efficiency savings achieved from five Maryland electric utilities.
• Developed an energy-efficiency portfolio optimization tool for DTE Energy. The model used linear programming techniques to maximize energy savings for target cost levels under various constraints including low-income participation, low-income spending, maximum and minimum measure-level participation, sector spending targets, etc.
• Managed a $4M portfolio impact evaluation for five Maryland utilities to estimate kW and kWh savings from their energy efficiency programs and to permit bidding peak demand reductions achieved through efficiency programs into the PJM forward capacity market.
• Acted as the deputy project manager for the evaluation of 56 Local Government Partnership energy efficiency programs for the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC), a multi-year, multi-million-dollar portfolio impact evaluation.
• Developed a stochastic model estimating the probabilistic benefits and costs of Smart-Grid technologies for Bonneville Power Administration. This model is currently being used to shape Smart-Grid policy and strategy in the Northwest U.S.
• Developed a nonlinear optimization model for NV Energy to optimize dispatch of Demand Response (DR) resources and to forecast DR savings. Provided model to the client with a user-friendly graphical user interface.
• Estimated the remaining useful life of residential appliances for a California utility using established Weibull regression methods as well as a novel method involving a stock/flow model using System Dynamics.
• Assessed the market potential for Demand Response in the Con Edison service territory (New York City).  Developed Navigant Consulting’s Demand Response Simulator (DRSim™) model to assist in evaluating DR market potential, including assessment of market risk using Monte Carlo techniques.
• Guided development of a smart-grid benefit/cost model for Tendril networks. Provided model to the client with a user-friendly graphical user interface and trained Tendril staff in its use.
• Developed a model evaluating the pricing of power purchase agreements for a large renewable installation in Southern California. 
• Developed a model simulating the dispatch of a gas turbine for purposes of assessing the market value of improved startup times and reduced startup emissions.
• Developed a model simulating the supply/demand balance in the LA Basin load pocket for the California Energy Commission. This model considered environmental and transmission constraints and facilitated scenario analysis associated with shutting down once-through cooling plants due to environmental concerns.

• “SURREBUTTAL TESTIMONY OF CORY WELCH On Behalf of Arizona Public Service Company,” Docket No. E-04204A-15-0142. UNSE Rate Case. February 23, 2016. Oral and written testimony presented before the Arizona Corporation Commission related to the economics of solar PV and the ability of solar providers to respond to changes in rate structure. (see page 183/216).
• Testified orally on behalf of Enbridge Gas Distribution Company in front of the Ontario Energy Board. August 26, 2015. EB-2015-0049. Oral testimony provided defense of an energy conservation potential study conducted by Navigant for Enbridge. 
• “Net Metering Grandfathering Analysis for theResidential and Commercial/Industrial Market Sectors.” Conducted analysis and developed testimony support in a report filed by Pacific Gas and Electric in Rulemaking 12-11-005, December 23, 2013 Report. 
• Presented analysis before the California Energy Commission in DOCKET 09-IEP-1O, September 24, 2009. “Assessing Los Angeles Basin Reliability Given Environmental Constraints.” 

• Lumidyne Consulting, LLC – Founder & President (2018-present)
• Navigant Consulting, Inc. – Director, Associate Director, Managing Consultant (2008-2017)
• Summit Blue Consulting (acquired by Navigant) – Managing Consultant (2008-2009)
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory – Senior Energy Analyst (2004-2009)
• UTC Fuel Cells – Program Manager (2001-2004)
• Lieutenant, United States Navy – Naval Nuclear Propulsion Headquarters (1994-1999)

• SM, Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2001)
• MBA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management (2001)
• BS, Mechanical Engineering, Cornell University (with distinction, 1994)